Understanding Time Cycles and Order Flow in Trading

The speaker welcomes the audience to a lecture on the magic of pxh and pxl, emphasizing the importance of understanding time cycles and utilizing them to measure orderflow. The lecture aims to elevate the audience's understanding of algorithmic time and price delivery through shared theory.

The speaker showcases market reviews shared with their mentorship to demonstrate the anticipation of price movements, emphasizing the ability to anticipate swings on higher time frames and fractalize theories into lower time frames.

The speaker analyzes the release of NFP targeting liquidity, focusing on Dixie's price levels and potential swing high formation. They discuss the importance of specific price levels and candle closes in determining market direction.

The speaker discusses their analysis of door's behavior, looking for specific price levels to act as support or resistance. They emphasize the importance of candle closes and price ranges in determining future market movements.

The speaker presents a schematic showcasing three time cycles and the current cycle. They refer to the high and low of previous cycles to determine orderflow, providing a visual representation of how time cycles influence market behavior.

In trading, understanding time cycles is crucial. During the current time cycle, attention is drawn to the high and low of the previous time cycle, as well as the high and low of the time cycle before that. This concept of referencing previous cycles' highs or lows is essential for analyzing market movements.

The trading theory discussed is fractal, meaning it applies from the highest to the lowest time frames. This fractal nature allows the theory to be used across various time frames, from daily to monthly cycles, providing a comprehensive view of market dynamics.

To analyze order flow reversals, one must observe how price reacts at previous cycles' highs or lows. Failure to find support or resistance at these levels after a breakout signals a potential change in order flow direction, serving as an initial warning sign for traders.

Monthly cycles play a significant role in market analysis. Price movements during the current monthly cycle often refer back to the highs and lows of previous monthly cycles. Understanding these patterns helps traders anticipate market behavior and potential reversals.

On the daily chart, applying the discussed theory involves analyzing price movements relative to yearly openings and specific price levels. By understanding how price interacts with previous cycle highs and lows, traders can gain insights into market dynamics and potential trading opportunities.

The theory presented has had a significant impact on trading in 2024. By annotating price movements and key levels on charts, traders can visualize how the theory influences market behavior. This detailed analysis enhances traders' understanding of time and price dynamics for more informed decision-making.

When analyzing the market, a key focus is on the bodies respecting the low of an imbalanced price range. The market turned around after breaking above a previous Cycle's High. The analysis involves determining if the Cycle's high will act as support for price to continue higher or if a reversal is likely.

In technical analysis, traders look at specific candlestick patterns to predict market movements. By extending the price range of a previous Cycle's High candle to the right, traders can observe how the market behaves around that level. This analysis helps in identifying potential price targets and support levels.

Annotating candlestick patterns, such as an upclose candle, is crucial for understanding price behavior. Staying below a significant candle, like the upclose candle, indicates weakness in price movement. Traders use this information to anticipate further price declines towards specific levels, such as the February low and existing gaps in the market.

Algorithmic analysis reveals the importance of time and price alignment in market movements. Price movements are allowed to occur at specific times, indicating strategic entry and exit points. By observing how price reacts to previous highs or lows, traders can make informed decisions on market direction and potential price targets.

Analyzing previous cycles' highs and lows is essential for projecting future market movements. By observing how price reacts to these levels, traders can determine potential price trajectories. The focus is on whether the market will continue its current trend or reverse, with a preference towards continuation until proven otherwise.

In analyzing the Euro market, a falling order flow indicates bearish sentiment. Traders closely monitor key levels, such as the BC level, for price reactions. Respecting the high of the BC level signifies institutional order flow, providing insights into market direction and potential price movements.

The speaker is analyzing the trading behavior of Euro against the Dollar. They mention that Euro is currently below a certain low and anticipate sell-side activity. The speaker is waiting to see if a low will form inside a specific gap, which would correspond with a high forming on Dixie. They are looking for signs that Euro may have formed a low for the quarter, waiting for confirmation by Euro displacing above a certain level.

The speaker notes that Euro has been stuck after reaching a daily BC level, with 50% retracement. They emphasize the significance of candle closes relative to the BC level, indicating a potential retracement back into the current range. The speaker discusses establishing premium discounts and defines dealing ranges for Euro.

The speaker discusses the importance of Euro displacing above a specific price range to anticipate buy-side activity. They mention the need for Dixie to begin displacing lower for this scenario to unfold. The speaker analyzes Euro's repricing lower from the yearly open, highlighting various resistance levels and premium arrays acting on price.

The speaker delves into Euro's trading patterns, mentioning how it reached the December low in February. They discuss the formation of a breaker pattern with a low-high-lower low-higher high sequence. The speaker explains the significance of breakers forming inside other breakers, indicating a bearish breaker formation and its implications on Euro's trading behavior.

Analyzing the price movement, it is observed that the upgo candle formed within the price range of the breaker candle. Subsequently, bullish order flow was witnessed as the market retraced into the price range of the down close candle and then moved towards the buy side, surpassing the February high.

The focus shifts to whether the current candlestick (CB) will act as an inverse gap on price and if the February high will serve as support going forward. Anticipations include reaching buy equity above relative equal highs and potentially achieving a generary high.

In the context of order flow continuation, the interbank price delivery algorithm references previous cycle highs or lows. Price reactions at these levels are crucial for measuring order flow continuations. Bullish price action should find support at previous cycle highs, while bearish price action should encounter resistance at previous cycle lows.

Emphasizing the importance of time in market analysis, it is highlighted that specific price ranges forming at the right time hold significance for future market movements. By prioritizing time over price and understanding the relevance of timing in forming price ranges, a new perspective on market analysis is gained.

For bearish continuation profiles, attention is drawn to the utilization of the previous cycle's low as potential resistance to continue lower. The high of the current cycle is expected to align with the low of the previous cycle, indicating a bearish trend continuation scenario.

Conversely, in bullish continuation profiles, focus shifts to the previous cycle's high as a reference point. Observing whether a low will form during the current cycle at the previous high signifies a bullish trend continuation.

In trading, the cycle's high is utilized to reprice higher into a higher time frame objective above the current market price. This strategy has been observed in bullish markets, with heavy repricing towards new highs. The previous cycle high serves as a crucial reference point to determine the market's bullishness.

To apply the cycle theory intraday, focus on 90-minute cycles, especially during the Asia, London, New York morning, and New York afternoon sessions. These specific time windows within sessions inject volatility, making them ideal for trading analysis.

For the morning session, 90-minute cycles occur from 7:00 a.m. to 8:30 a.m., 8:30 a.m. to 10:00 a.m., and 10:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. For the afternoon session, cycles run from 11:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m., 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m., and 2:30 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. Each cycle within a session has unique characteristics for order flow analysis.

Examples of order flow analysis occurred within two days after the introduction of the trading theory. These examples demonstrate the practical application of the theory in real-time trading scenarios, showcasing the effectiveness of utilizing specific time windows for measuring order flow.

The speaker discusses how they have been able to gain the pris with their executions by utilizing a specific logic. They emphasize that understanding this logic can elevate one's level of understanding price delivery to a whole new level.

The speaker analyzes a market example from Thursday between 8:30 to 11:30. They describe how the market formed a high, sold off, manipulated lower, traded sideways, expanded above the high, and how price range functioned as support after breaking above it.

During the Thursday PM session, the speaker notes a messy market session with consolidation and time distortion due to being a day prior to NFP. They highlight how logic still worked in this environment, showcasing the importance of time cycles and respective highs and lows in algorithmic price delivery.

Between 2:30 to 4 on Thursday, the market repriced lower into the previous cycle's low, swept the low, went sideways, and retraced higher above the previous cycle's high. The speaker explains this behavior in terms of imbalances and market movements.

Towards market close on Thursday, around the final 10 minutes of the day, the market began to sell off. The speaker describes the algorithmic order flow, market retracement, distribution, and price movements outside of their interested time windows.

On Friday, there was a big manipulation to the downside followed by consolidation. Around 9:30, the market began to spool higher and reprice higher. Between 10 to 11:30, the market formed a high, showcasing specific market behaviors post-NFP release.

The market begins to roll over and trades below the previous cycle's high. Despite the displacement below the high, no significant CB or formations occur. The market then goes sideways, expands higher, and eventually rolls towards the previous cycle high. A sell program is initiated when the price trades below the previous cycle's high, locking in lower prices.

Specific price levels are crucial in each session, with predetermined highs and lows that should be met. By fractalizing and applying the logic to different time cycles, traders can anticipate price movements. The previous cycle's low becomes a key reference point for price levels.

Even without perfect formations, the overall market structure can provide warning signs. Breaking through key levels like the previous cycle's high can signal potential bearish order flow. Understanding these structural cues helps in confirming market direction.

The speaker demonstrates a market maker sell model trade during the PM session after a market release. By annotating previous cycle highs and observing market behavior, the speaker identifies opportunities to go short based on alignment of time and price. Detailed analysis of price ranges and market movements guides the trade decisions.

It is recommended to pay attention not only to the high and low of a previous X range or cycle but also to the equilibrium of that range, which is typically around 50% of the previous cycle's range from low to high or high to low. Observing how the market reacts to these levels can provide valuable insights into potential price movements.

The speaker highlights the importance of applying the same analytical logic from a daily chart to a one-minute chart. By examining how previous cycle highs and lows are broken and then act as resistance or support levels, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and potential price movements.

The speaker encourages viewers to take their time to understand the concepts presented in the lecture. By re-listening to the content, taking notes, and having faith in the learning process, individuals can eventually experience a 'light bulb moment' where everything clicks. Patience and dedication to learning are emphasized for achieving success in trading.

In the closing remarks, the speaker expresses gratitude to the audience for watching the lecture and wishes them luck with their studies. Emphasizing the importance of thorough investigation and development in trading, the speaker advises against rushing through the learning process. The audience is encouraged to take their time, allow for growth, and trust that great outcomes will follow with dedication.